Changes in crime rates during and after the pandemic

By: Reagan Hubbard

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (UATV) – When people hear about crime rates rising or decreasing, many initial thoughts believe that there are either more murders happening or less. In actuality, general crime rates can fluctuate without violent crime having extensive impact. Violent crime rates deal with a whole different level of crimes such as murder, aggrevated assault and other violent felonies.

Lockdown Orders Cause Crime Rates to Decrease Temporarily

In the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, crimes rates in general decreased for a period of time which was likely due to the decrease in social events and gatherings during lockdown orders. Dr. Casey Harris, a Criminology professor and assistant professor for the Center of Sociology Research, says “the crime rate has returned to what it was prior to the pandemic” when lockdown orders expired. When a sudden decrease in social gatherings happens, less interaction between people in our community happens, he says.

A global analysis on the impact of COVID-19 stay at home restrictions shows that during the first 60 days of lockdown orders, theft specifically dropped an extensive amount. After the first couple months, rates began increasing again. 

Public Order and Property Crimes vs Violent Crimes

Majority of crimes committed are public order or property crimes, meaning there is not a harmed victim from the crime that took place. However, the question at hand is; what should we be paying attention to and why? 

A Fayetteville Police Officer, Sean O’Neill, says the increase in crime rates ‘is not because the pandemic made people start acting out.” Rather, he believes that a spike in the rate is likely due to repeat offenders. 

He attributes the decrease in crime rates at the beginning of the pandemic to the lack of access officers suddenly had compared to a pre-pandemic world, unlike Dr. Harris predicted. “Being a police officer is a very proactive job. Compare it to firefighters, for example, who are at the station all night and day until they are called to help. Firefighters are reactive, where police officers are constantly driving around, searching for crime”, O’Neill said. He believes that when officers were no longer allowed to pull people over, search their cars or have other police interactions with them, is when and why crime rates were dropping. 

Crimes that happen at home

An unfortunate and particularly difficult crime to analyze is domestic violence. Along with child abuse, domestic violence cases can be hard to obtain data for due to the large percentage of cases that go unreported. Dr. Casey Harris says economical issues, a high percentage of people being laid-off, combined with remote learning and global health concerns, can easily create a stressful household. When it comes to domestic violence and child abuse during these times, aggressive situations are more likely to happen. 

Crime rates response to George Floyd’s murders

According to the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice, the homicide rate began to increase in the beginning of 2020 and rose sharply immediately after George Floyd’s murder, which sparked nationwide protests against police violence. The summer of 2020 following Floyd’s murder when protests began, homicide and aggravated assault rates began returning to normal. However, the homicide rate in the beginning months of 2021 increased 49% since the beginning of 2019 (pre-pandemic).