Off the Mat UFC 137 Predictions

So we’re back after a little lay off, it takes a huge amount of work to be this good at what we do. All that aside it’s time for UFC 137! This week we’ll be at Buffalo Wild Wings (Located at : 32 W Joyce Blvd Fayetteville, AR 72703-6211) Thursday October 27 at 7pm and we’ll be bringing you the breakdowns you know and love. Without further ado here’s your OTM UFC 137 Staff Predictions!

Bernard Oliver – The Five Star General

Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop

Uh-oh the UFC brings in a true beast from the East, the Far East. Former Sengoku Champion, and Shooto Lightweight champion Hatsu Hioki is set to take on another up and coming talent in George Roop. Roop and Hioki counter each other down to their toenails. Roop has very explosive Muay Thai that shined through in his body shot KO of Josh Grispi.  I heard through the grapevine Hioki has a ground game that would make the Gracie’s proud. He’s been a champion in every promotion he’s fought in, and half of his wins are by submission. What does that mean for Roop? An early night.

Hioki by submission in the first round

Scott Jorgenson vs. Jeff Curran

Curran is coming into this fight with a record that has been all over the place in the not so distant past. He has a commanding record at 33-13-1 with well over half of those wins being by submission. Jorgenson only has four losses on his record one of which has been avenged. If you keep up with him you know he can do it standing and he can get technical on the ground. The thing that worries me is that both of these guys take fights to decisions. THIRTY fights between the two of them have come by decision. All of Currans losses have come by decision. Go hard or go home for Curran I guess.

Jorgenson by decision

Mirko Cro Cop Filopovic vs Roy Nelson

I think we can all agree the Croation Cop is past his prime. One of the most feared KOers in MMA history is now  a career builder. His light goes out a lot easier than it did back in the old days. On the other side of that you have the first MMA fighter to be recommended to the Dolce Diet. Nelson has eons of knowledge and talent but that belly…that belly has been the subject of many jokes and opposing fighters’ nightmares. With a fight like this I have to take Nelson on his ability to use his weight on everyone except Frank Mir and Junior Dos Santos. He can slug with anyone and has a chin that can take some punishment. He also has a Black Belt under Renzo Gracie…yeah advantage Nelson. But don’t be surprised if something crazy happens.

Nelson first round KO

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

I have to admit I was not a big fan of big mouthed, smiling Mitrione when I first got a glimpse of him on TUF: Heavyweights. Cheick on the other hand was one of my faves a few years back. Those roles have switched dramatically. Kongo is still my dude but the shorts grabbing in the ring in every fight kills me when I see it. He has however taken current HW champ Cain Velasquez to a decision. Mitrione continues to grow and establish himself as a premier athlete. His embarrassment of Kimbo Slice, his other three KO/TKOs have all been impressive. His training under Duke Roufus has improved his all around game and striking. I have to go against my gut here because Kongo is a bit inconsistent.

Mitrione 2nd round KO

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

First Nate Diaz has to fight one his reveled  idols in Takanori Gomi. Now the older brother takes on his idol and and fellow Gracie student BJ Penn. Although Penn has had his share of beef with his former schoolmates he has been regarded as one of the most talented fighters to ever come through the school by Henzo Gracie. Bj has surged in his last couple of fights coming out as the beastly BJ and not the overweight under trained BJ. I see him coming out this way against Diaz. Nick on the other hand is this generations Gracie phenom. Textbook technique with an unheard of chin. With boxing that ranks in the top tier of MMA and his regular participation in triathlons he’s a force to be reckoned with. He charges forward standing and on the ground.he’d walk through a brick wall if that was his opponent. He had no equal in Strikeforce and he’s now back in the UFC. This fight was born out of many things that should not have happened but here we are at a fight that could possibly make the top five list for fight of the year. Two Gracie Black Belts face off in what will be on epic showdown. I feel like the movie voice guy ha. I don’t see this fight going to the ground and if it does I have to go with youth.

Nick Diaz by 2nd round KO…yeah I said it “Don’t be scared homie”  

*Fight of the Night: Penn vs Diaz

 *Sub. of the Night: Hatsu Hioki

 *KO of the Night: Matt Mitrione 

Jeremy Hurtt – The Guru Sage

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Hioki has ground game to spare, with a nasty triangle set-up that allows him to attack in a variety of manners.  He is a world-class fighter with a world-class resume.   Roop is..uhm…he’s George Roop.  Long and good muay thai, but not particularly much of an anything specific, except stepping stone or career derailer.  I’ll say this, he’s been involved in some fun fights.  For him to have any chance against Hioki, he will need to win this fight on his feet.  He doesn’t have quite his customary length advantage in this fight, but he will still be longest dude his opponent has fought yet.  And, more to the point, if Roop finds himself on the ground, he’s in trouble.

Prediction: Hioki via Triangle, 1st round

Mirko Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson

Where to start?  Crop Cop WAS one of the most exciting heavyweights to ever practice those martial arts that are mixed.  His left leg is the stuff of legend, the subject of youtube videos and scary campfire stories in Japan.  But this is not that same fighter.  This is something else entirely, and I suppose it’s his choice how long to drag this thing out.  Nelson is that guy, the super chubby one with the mullet who comes to the Octagon to the tunes of Weird Al Yankovic.  That’s who that dude is.  He’s also a surprisingly good fighter.  He’s not Junior Dos-Santos-good (hell, he’s not even Frank-Mir-good), but he is Mirco-Cro-Cop-2011-good.  Cro Cop’s book has been written, with sequels…walk forward and punch him, he will drop.  Nelson will certainly walk forward and punch.  That’s what fat dudes do.

Prediction: Nelson via KO,   2nd round

 

 

 

 

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

This is a fight that looks like it should be a slugfest, but I have this creeping suspicion that Kongo may opt to rassle with Mitrione as opposed to boxing with the NFL athlete who has won every one of his fights with his hands.  Mitrione is one of those guys that you can see building his game in each fight – he always improves, and his interviews always makes you feel just a little bit better about the man since his incredibly annoying turn on The Ultimate Fighter.   Kongo looks like an action figure, has displayed devastating striking and competent top control, and is physically impressive enough to make you wonder why he isn’t a champion.  Why isn’t he a champion?  A suspect chin and holes in his ground game.  It’s a shame.  I expect Kongo to try to take Mitrione down and hold him against the cage, and for Mitrione’s athleticism to make the difference by allowing him to keep this fight where he wants it – standing and throwing.

Prediction: Mitrione via Unanimous Decision

 

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

This is not easy for me, but I guess that’s why I make the theoretical big bucks I don’t make.  These are maybe my two favorite fighters in the game, in the kind of fight that will absolutely destroy the career of the loser.  BJ Penn doesn’t have the greatest record of all time, but he’s on the short list for discussion as the greatest of all time.  He dominated his weight class for years, and fought the elite (winning titles) in other classes, with the Jiu-Jisu that earned him his “Prodigy” moniker, and boxing that Freddie Roach once called the best in MMA.  He is also, if I must be honest, on the back-side of his career.  Nick Diaz is a rangy jiu-jitsu specialist who happens to have one of the most unique (if you count the Diaz brothers as one entity) fighting styles in the game.  Diaz sets up his ground attack with voluminous jabs and assorted punches from all directions and angles.  He engages at a rate that is almost impossible for his opponents to maintain, so this fight will revolve around who can make it their kind of fight.  BJ wants to work the jab on his feet, and land on top if it goes to the ground – this is where one of the most impressive take down defenses in the sport’s history becomes helpful.  Nick just wants to attack, attack, attack, and overwhelm the Hawaiian with his volume and pace.  I feel like the length and cardio of Diaz will be the deciding factor in this fight.

Prediction:  Nick Diaz, via 3rd round TKO

*Fight of the Night: Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone

*Submission of the Night: Hioki

*Knockout of the Night: Nelson

 

Jon Urcuyo – The Surgical Statistician

Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone 

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Mirko Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson

Winner: Nelson

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Brett Rorie – The Charismatic Youngblood

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

This fight to me, is a warm up fight for Hioki to get ready for a possible title shot against Jose Aldo. There are many MMA journalists who see Hioki as the second best featherweight in the world. If you have never seen Hioki before, he is a black-belt in jiu-jitsu with 14 of his 28 wins coming by submission. Meanwhile, George Roop is a really great example of a gatekeeper. He wins the fights he should, but cannot win the big ones. Roop is good in a lot of areas, but is not great, and that is always a problem.

Prediction: Hioki via, Submission 2nd round

 

Scott “Young Guns Jorgenson vs. Jeff “The Big Frog Curran
Non-stop-action is a perfect way to describe what this fight will be. Jorgenson, a great wrestler who has really improved his striking a great deal, will be greatly tested by the experienced vet Curran. Expect Jorgenson to use his new found stand up, and wrestling defense to keep this standing. Curran is a savy vet, who has spectacular jiu-jitsu, but average stand up. To get a fair assessment of Curran do not look at his record. Curran has been fighting at weight-classes too high, so expect the best Curran yet. The key in this fight will be, can Curran hang with Jorgenson in the striking department. If he can Curran has an excellent chance.
Prediction: Scott Jorgenson via, unanimous decision

Mirko “Cro Crop” Filipovic vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson

In all actuality, this fight is just a filler in the card with two big names that have no chance of challenging for a Heavyweight title. Mirko is well past his prime, and Nelson is in the wrong division if he ever wants to contend.  Not sure why this fight is on PPV, but a great fight like Siver vs. Cerrone is not.

Prediction: Nelson via, Unanimous Decision  

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt “Meathead” Mitrione

While it may not seem like it, this fight could possibly move the winner of this fight into one or two wins away from a title shot. Kongo, is a big strong kickboxer and has really shown to be an inconsistent fighter in his career. It has always hard to guess what Kongo will do. Against the current champ Cain Velazquez he looked great, but he also has been destroyed in less than 2 minutes by Frank Mir. While Mitrione has never really been tested yet, it will be interesting to see how “Meathead” responds to this step up in competition. Expect this fight to stay standing, and the fighter who connects first to win this fight. However, if Mitrione does struggle in the standup exchanges, he might look to take down Kongo, who has no ground game.

Prediction: Mitrione via, 1st round TKO

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Do I need to say more, what a fight this will be!!!!!! Action, action, action, is all we will see from these two. When trying to analyze this fight I have no idea on who has an advantage anywhere. The only thing that differs in their style is that BJ is a power striker, while Nick is more of a methodical striker who uses volume not power. When breaking down this fight the key is how long this fight will last. When looking at both fighters conditioning, BJ has really no cardio, while Nick has tremendous cardio. If Nick Diaz really wants to win this fight he must continually pressure BJ with punches in bunches. BJ needs to try to end this fight with his great hands, or he phenomenal BJJ. Either way, expect a War!!!!

Prediction:  Nick Diaz, via 3rd round TKO